5
Dairy Force
7yo Gelding · 11-5 · OR 103
Downpatrick · Randox Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C10.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kilbeggan | BHA104 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Down Royal | BHA104 | 0 | ||
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | BHA105 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Galway | BHA105 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Sligo | BHA105 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Limerick | BHA105 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +0.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 73% | -0.17 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 18/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 15/05/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 15% | -0.32 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 91% | +0.36 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 79% | +0.32 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 03/09/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 62% | -0.15 |