10
Derry Lad
8yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 98
Downpatrick · Randox Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y
#9
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Naas | BHA64 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Leopardstown | BHA65 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Leopardstown | BHA67 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Naas | BHA68 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Leopardstown | BHA70 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Leopardstown | BHA73 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/2025 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 06/03/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/04/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 15/04/2026 | 12th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 23/08/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 27% | -0.15 |