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Migdam

7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 110

Downpatrick · Randox Handicap Hurdle · 2m 1f 165y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Lightly raced over hurdles but won a maiden at Tramore last summer (wore hood). Hasn't shown much in a pair of handicaps in this sphere since, though and difficult to make a case for him unless the market was to suddenly speak in his favour.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Limerick 11/06/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m3f110y Gd 136 · beat its mark11/06/2025 · OR 68 par11/06C7OR 68C8 @ Ballinrobe 22/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f89y Gd 166C8 @ Tramore 17/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m140y Gd 16617/08C8BHA65 @ Curragh 28/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 22 · OR 65 · 1m2f Yie 165 · beat its mark28/09/2025 · OR 65 parBHA64 @ Thurles 09/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 64 · 2m66y Goo 134 · beat its mark09/10/2025 · OR 64 par9/1064OR 64BHA74 @ Dundalk 26/11/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 74 · 1m4f Std 162 · below its mark26/11/2025 · OR 74 parC8 @ Fairyhouse 06/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 21 · OR 115 · 2m Yie 161 · below its mark06/04/2026 · OR 115 par6/04C8OR 115BHA65 @ Ballinrobe 08/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 65 · 1m4f183y Goo 125 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 65 parBHA114 @ Kilbeggan 04/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 114 · 2m26y Goo 158 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 114 par4/09114OR 114projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04KilbegganBHA1147th7th0
2026-05-08BallinrobeBHA6514th14th0
2026-04-06Fairyhouse?8th8th0
2025-11-26DundalkBHA7413th13th0
2025-10-09ThurlesBHA642nd2nd0
2025-09-28CurraghBHA657th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0628/096/044/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%

Delivery trend -1.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/06/20254th10/382%73%-0.10
22/07/20255th14/126%71%+0.45
17/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
28/09/20257th7/163%71%+0.08
09/10/20252nd13/266%91%+0.25
26/11/202513th22/10%8%+0.08
06/04/20268th50/10%65%+0.65
08/05/202614th8/158%0%-0.58
04/09/20267th33/10%25%+0.25