13
John Dixen
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 73
Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f 165y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 9.0 /10 (raw 9.0)
Highest class: BHA74
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | BHA74 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Ballinrobe | BHA77 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA77 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Thurles | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-31 | Punchestown | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Fairyhouse | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +11.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 11th | 300/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 31/12/2025 | 13th | 250/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/01/2026 | 11th | 250/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 21/07/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 36% | -0.01 |
| 31/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |