11
Lucky This Time
5yo Gelding · 10-3 · OR 75
Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f 165y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 13.8 /10 (raw 13.8)
Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-17 | Tramore | BHA79 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-06-06 | Clonmel | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2025-05-16 | Kilbeggan | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-05-05 | Down Royal | ? | 17th | 17th | 0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Gowran Park | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend +0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2025 | 17th | 150/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/05/2025 | 11th | 200/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/06/2025 | 15th | 200/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 17/08/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |