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Mercurial Sea

5yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 93

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f 165y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

7%

Place Prob

13%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden hurdler with an inconsistent profile but ran well when second in mares handicap and mares maiden over C&D earlier this season. Didn't take to chasing at Tramore last time, though, and more needed if she's to go close quickly reverting to hurdling.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 11/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 2m190y Gd 15911/07C?C0 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR - · 2m160y Goo 163C8 @ Fairyhouse 21/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 2m4f80y Hvy 15221/11C8BHA93 @ Navan 21/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 93 · 2m Sft 140 · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 93 parC8 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 90 · 2m3f170y Goo 153 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 90 par12/04C8OR 90BHA88 @ Downpatrick 08/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 88 · 2m1f165y Goo 144 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 88 parBHA89 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 89 · 2m5f180y Goo 158 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 89 par22/0589OR 89C8 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 88 · 2m1f165y Gd 161 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 88 parBHA94 @ Tramore 14/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 94 · 2m5f180y Gd 164 · below its mark14/08/2026 · OR 94 par14/0894OR 94projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14TramoreBHA948th8th0
2026-07-14Downpatrick?2nd2nd0
2026-05-22DownpatrickBHA898th8th0
2026-05-08DownpatrickBHA882nd2nd0
2026-04-12Down Royal?6th6th0
2026-03-21NavanBHA938th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0721/0322/0514/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength61%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20258th10/147%53%+0.06
08/09/20255th18/15%75%+0.70
21/11/202512th50/10%27%+0.27
21/03/20268th80/10%36%+0.36
12/04/20266th12/137%64%+0.27
08/05/20262nd11/142%91%+0.49
22/05/20268th7/163%50%-0.13
14/07/20262nd7/163%90%+0.27
14/08/20268th14/126%42%+0.15