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6

Might Be The One

5yo Mare · 11-2 · OR 88

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f 165y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#3

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Good efforts when placed on 4 of last 5 starts, including when runner-up last twice, beaten 12 lengths by runaway winner Lady Bluebird in mares handicap at Tramore on latest. Step back down in trip unlikely to inconvenience her and must be considered. Wears first-time tongue strap.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Sligo 20/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 16 · OR - · 2m1f111y Gd 15020/08C8C8 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR - · 2m160y Goo 157BHA85 @ Sligo 24/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 85 · 2m1f112y Goo 153 · below its mark24/10/2025 · OR 85 par24/1085OR 85BHA83 @ Tramore 25/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 83 · 2m5f Sft 151 · below its mark25/11/2025 · OR 83 parBHA83 @ Limerick 29/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 83 · 2m3f Sft 152 · below its mark29/12/2025 · OR 83 par29/1283OR 83BHA86 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 86 · 2m1f33y Sft 155 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 86 parBHA86 @ Naas 08/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 86 · 2m77y Sft 155 · below its mark08/03/2026 · OR 86 par8/0386OR 86BHA86 @ Clonmel 02/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 86 · 1m7f200y Sft 154 · below its mark02/04/2026 · OR 86 parBHA88 @ Tramore 20/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 88 · 2m5f Goo 156 · below its mark20/04/2026 · OR 88 par20/0488OR 88projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-20TramoreBHA882nd2nd0
2026-04-02ClonmelBHA862nd2nd0
2026-03-08NaasBHA863rd3rd0
2026-01-20Down RoyalBHA865th5th0
2025-12-29LimerickBHA832nd2nd0
2025-11-25TramoreBHA834th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0825/118/0320/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength80%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/08/20259th80/10%47%+0.47
08/09/20258th150/10%53%+0.53
24/10/20257th25/10%50%+0.50
25/11/20254th11/142%80%+0.38
29/12/20252nd13/266%92%+0.26
20/01/20265th5/174%73%-0.00
08/03/20263rd4/179%78%-0.01
02/04/20262nd5/174%93%+0.20
20/04/20262nd3/184%93%+0.09