9
Nelliestar
6yo Mare · 10-5 · OR 77
Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f 165y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 10.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Sligo | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Ballinrobe | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Dundalk | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Dundalk | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend +1.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 12th | 200/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 09/01/2026 | 12th | 500/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/01/2026 | 10th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/02/2026 | 10th | 200/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 27/03/2026 | 11th | 300/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 300/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 10th | 250/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/08/2026 | 8th | 300/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 250/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |