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5

Pahlavi

9yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 92

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f 165y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Hasn't fired this season, including at this track last time, but has fallen in the weights as a result and now finds himself 8 lb below his last winning mark. Blinkers replace cheekpieces but needs to show something like last season's form if he's to capitalise on it.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Fontwell 07/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 110 · 2m3f29y Goo 168 · below its mark07/09/2025 · OR 110 par7/094OR 110BHA104 @ Listowel 26/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 104 · 2m2f Goo 162 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 104 parBHA104 @ Limerick 18/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 104 · 2m70y Yie 162 · below its mark18/10/2025 · OR 104 par18/10104OR 104BHA102 @ Wexford 07/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 102 · 2m Goo 158 · below its mark07/05/2026 · OR 102 parBHA100 @ Limerick 21/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 100 · 2m1f157y Goo 168 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 100 par21/05100OR 1004 @ Southwell 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 106 · 1m7f182y Goo 156 · below its mark02/06/2026 · OR 106 par4 @ Stratford 29/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 102 · 2m70y Goo 160 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 102 par29/064OR 102BHA95 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 95 · 2m140y Goo 165 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 95 parBHA94 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 94 · 2m1f165y Gd 163 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 94 par31/0894OR 94projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA946th6th0
2026-08-16TramoreBHA955th5th0
2026-07-12SligoBHA970
2026-06-29Stratford45th5th0
2026-06-02Southwell45th5th0
2026-05-21LimerickBHA1006th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/097/0529/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 2-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength52%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/09/20253rd5/174%50%-0.24
26/09/20258th12/137%53%+0.16
18/10/20255th25/10%60%+0.60
07/05/202611th40/10%9%+0.09
21/05/20266th25/10%62%+0.62
02/06/20265th28/10%0%0.00
29/06/20265th22/10%20%+0.20
16/08/20265th20/10%69%+0.69
31/08/20266th9/153%50%-0.03