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Tropical Twist

5yo Mare · 12-0 · OR 100

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1) · 2m 1f 165y

#6

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed much improved form when winning 14-runner 17f handicap at Wexford last month, suited by the strong pace. Presumably found the race coming too soon when not in the same form at this track just 2 days later and no surprise to see her get back on track now.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Downpatrick 19/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f165y Yie 15919/09C?C8 @ Gowran Park 03/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 19 · OR - · 2m80y Sft 154C8 @ Downpatrick 10/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 2m1f65y Yie 15810/10C84 @ Perth 21/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m47y Sft 157BHA93 @ Wexford 03/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 93 · 2m1f55y Gd 161 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 93 par3/0793OR 93BHA93 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 93 · 2m150y Gd 165 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 93 parBHA93 @ Wexford 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 93 · 2m180y Goo 163 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 93 par7/0893OR 93BHA93 @ Downpatrick 09/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 93 · 2m1f165y Gd 169 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 93 par9/0893OR 93projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09DownpatrickBHA938th8th0
2026-08-07WexfordBHA931st1st0
2026-07-23WexfordBHA934th4th0
2026-07-03WexfordBHA935th5th0
2026-04-18BellewstownBHA940
2026-03-21NavanBHA950

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0921/107/089/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength91%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20256th9/276%17%-0.60
03/10/20255th66/10%78%+0.78
10/10/20254th12/137%70%+0.33
21/10/20255th11/142%43%+0.01
03/07/20265th40/10%67%+0.67
23/07/20264th11/142%67%+0.25
07/08/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
09/08/20268th3/184%13%-0.72