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Baltinglass Hill

9yo Gelding · 10-7 · OR 79

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 1f 165y

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Losing run is mounting up and failed to build on better signs of previous effort when tailed off at Punchestown in May. Back over fences after 4 months off, again ran poorly in handicap at this venue (19f) 18 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: BHA73
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA86 @ Roscommon 09/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 86 · 2m35y Goo 147 · below its mark09/06/2025 · OR 86 par9/0686OR 86BHA83 @ Tipperary 01/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 16 · OR 83 · 2m120y Yie 151 · below its mark01/07/2025 · OR 83 parBHA79 @ Tramore 17/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 79 · 1m7f140y Gd 147 · below its mark17/08/2025 · OR 79 par17/0879OR 79BHA79 @ Clonmel 02/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 79 · 2m2f141y Goo 152 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 79 parBHA79 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 79 · 2m2f65y Yie 140 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 79 par20/1179OR 79BHA79 @ Down Royal 26/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 79 · 2m4f130y Goo 147 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 79 parBHA87 @ Clonmel 14/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 87 · 2m216y Yie 155 · below its mark14/04/2026 · OR 87 par14/0487OR 87BHA83 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR 83 · 2m Goo 152 · below its mark13/05/2026 · OR 83 parBHA73 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 73 · 2m3f100y Gd 141 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 73 par31/0873OR 73projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA738th8th0
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA8316th16th0
2026-04-14ClonmelBHA877th7th0
2026-04-10WexfordBHA750
2026-01-11PunchestownBHA770
2025-12-26Down RoyalBHA797th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/062/1014/0431/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength44%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/06/20255th9/153%67%+0.14
01/07/20258th18/15%53%+0.48
17/08/20255th5/174%50%-0.24
02/10/20253rd5/174%82%+0.08
20/11/20253rd16/116%86%+0.70
26/12/20257th9/153%57%+0.05
14/04/20267th25/10%60%+0.60
13/05/202616th22/10%12%+0.12
31/08/20268th20/10%50%+0.50