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Burlington House

5yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 90

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 1f 165y

#9

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed improved form when making the frame in a couple of heavy-ground handicaps in December. However, ran poorly making return on the Flat and after another 2 months off he raced too freely when well held at Kilbeggan (19f) in July. Blinkers tried last time soon discarded.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 07/10/2024 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 52 · 1m5f219y Std 125 · beat its mark07/10/2024 · OR 52 par7/106OR 52C8 @ Limerick 10/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m5f60y Goo 156C8 @ Roscommon 05/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 1555/08C8C8 @ Roscommon 29/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 1m7f135y Goo 161BHA87 @ Navan 16/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 24 · OR 87 · 2m Hvy 155 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 87 par16/1187OR 87BHA87 @ Clonmel 02/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 87 · 2m3f97y Hvy 155 · below its mark02/12/2025 · OR 87 parC8 @ Limerick 27/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 87 · 2m Hvy 144 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 87 par27/12C8OR 87BHA60 @ Roscommon 18/05/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 60 · 1m4f17y Yie 142 · below its mark18/05/2026 · OR 60 parBHA90 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR 90 · 2m2f200y Gd 158 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 90 par24/0790OR 90projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA907th7th0
2026-05-18RoscommonBHA6015th15th0
2025-12-27Limerick?2nd2nd0
2025-12-02ClonmelBHA874th4th0
2025-11-16NavanBHA875th5th0
2025-09-29Roscommon?11th11th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/1029/0927/1224/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/10/20247th11/142%14%-0.28
10/04/20256th14/126%44%+0.18
05/08/202512th22/10%21%+0.21
29/09/202511th125/10%29%+0.29
16/11/20255th66/10%83%+0.83
02/12/20254th9/153%80%+0.27
27/12/20252nd8/158%93%+0.35
18/05/202615th25/10%7%+0.07
24/07/20267th22/10%60%+0.60