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10

Centaq

6yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 80

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 1f 165y

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ran one of better races when fourth of 10 in handicap here (19f) in May. However, hasn't been in the same form over C&D in 2 subsequent outings. Has eased in the weights at least, so he's capable of getting involved with cheekpieces refitted/tongue strap on for first time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA80 @ Downpatrick 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 80 · 2m1f165y Yie 148 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 80 par19/0980OR 80BHA82 @ Downpatrick 10/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 2m1f65y Yie 150 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 82 parBHA82 @ Thurles 16/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 18 · OR 82 · 1m7f172y Goo 151 · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 82 par16/1082OR 82BHA84 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 12th of 17 · OR 84 · 1m7f169y Yie 152 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 84 parBHA82 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR 82 · 2m3f50y Goo 150 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 82 par24/0482OR 82BHA84 @ Sligo 12/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 84 · 2m1f166y Goo 153 · below its mark12/05/2026 · OR 84 parBHA83 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 83 · 2m2f185y Goo 140 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 83 par22/0583OR 83BHA83 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 83 · 2m1f165y Gd 151 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 83 parBHA82 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR 82 · 2m1f165y Gd 150 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 82 par14/0782OR 82projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-14DownpatrickBHA828th8th0
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA836th6th0
2026-05-22DownpatrickBHA834th4th0
2026-05-12SligoBHA846th6th0
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA822nd2nd0
2025-12-26Down RoyalBHA820

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0920/1122/0514/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 4-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength36%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20252nd7/282%93%+0.11
10/10/20252nd9/488%88%-0.01
16/10/20259th5/174%53%-0.21
20/11/202512th8/158%31%-0.27
24/04/20262nd14/126%93%+0.67
12/05/20266th11/271%64%-0.07
22/05/20264th11/271%67%-0.04
14/06/20266th11/271%62%-0.10
14/07/20268th5/174%50%-0.24