IvyArcIvyArc
6

Hello Johnjoe

5yo Mare · 11-0 · OR 86

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 1f 165y

#5

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Standout effort over hurdles when third in a Clonmel handicap in January. Making chasing debut, shaped better than result when seventh of 10 in handicap at this venue (19f) in May, but others still more persuasive back hurdling after 4 months off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 7.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Roscommon 07/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f204y Gd 1617/07C?C8 @ Galway 02/08/2025 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR - · 2m175y Gd 156C8 @ Sligo 20/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 2m1f111y Gd 15020/08C8C8 @ Tramore 25/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR - · 2m50y Sft 159BHA88 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 18 · OR 88 · 2m4f55y Sft 158 · below its mark13/12/2025 · OR 88 par13/1288OR 88BHA87 @ Clonmel 08/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 87 · 2m3f219y Hvy 155 · below its mark08/01/2026 · OR 87 parBHA89 @ Down Royal 17/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 89 · 2m4f86y Goo 157 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 89 par17/0389OR 89BHA87 @ Downpatrick 08/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 87 · 2m3f100y Goo 155 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 87 par8/0587OR 87projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-08DownpatrickBHA877th7th0
2026-03-17Down RoyalBHA896th6th0
2026-02-05ThurlesBHA900
2026-01-08ClonmelBHA873rd3rd0
2025-12-13FairyhouseBHA885th5th0
2025-11-25Tramore?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0725/1117/038/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength73%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/07/20256th18/15%38%+0.32
02/08/202514th80/10%28%+0.28
20/08/202511th40/10%33%+0.33
25/11/20255th50/10%69%+0.69
13/12/20255th50/10%76%+0.76
08/01/20263rd12/137%85%+0.48
17/03/20266th20/10%62%+0.62
08/05/20267th14/126%33%+0.07