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Victoria Kesia

5yo Mare · 10-13 · OR 85

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 1f 165y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful winner on the Flat at best when trained by Joseph Murphy. Third on handicap hurdle debut over this C&D in June but hasn't kicked on since, well held back on the Flat at Cork 19 days ago. Tongue strap fitted for return to this track.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA67 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 22 · OR 67 · 1m Hvy 137 · below its mark21/10/2025 · OR 67 par21/1067OR 67C8 @ Thurles 27/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR - · 2m11y Goo 161C8 @ Down Royal 04/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 19 · OR - · 2m1f88y Gd 1594/05C8C8 @ Tramore 30/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 15 · OR - · 2m50y Goo 159BHA91 @ Downpatrick 14/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 91 · 2m1f165y Gd 159 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 91 par14/0691OR 91BHA91 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 91 · 1m7f204y Gd 159 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 91 parBHA89 @ Wexford 23/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 89 · 2m150y Gd 161 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 89 par23/0789OR 89BHA87 @ Ballinrobe 10/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 87 · 2m109y Goo 156 · below its mark10/08/2026 · OR 87 parBHA67 @ Cork 30/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 18 · OR 67 · 1m4f Yie 137 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 67 par30/0867OR 67projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30CorkBHA6712th12th0
2026-08-10BallinrobeBHA877th7th0
2026-07-23WexfordBHA898th8th0
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA9110th10th0
2026-06-14DownpatrickBHA913rd3rd0
2026-05-30Tramore?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/1030/0523/0730/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/10/202510th14/126%57%+0.31
27/11/20256th100/10%67%+0.67
04/05/202616th200/10%17%+0.17
30/05/20268th250/10%50%+0.50
14/06/20263rd16/116%85%+0.69
06/07/202610th12/137%40%+0.03
23/07/20268th18/15%22%+0.17
10/08/20267th50/10%57%+0.57
30/08/202612th100/10%35%+0.35