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Xquise

6yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 93

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 1f 165y

#12

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed little in half a dozen Flat starts for Miss Jennifer Anne Lynch in 2024 and, after 20-month absence, was well held back over hurdles in maiden at Roscommon (2½m) 6 weeks ago on stable debut. Goes handicapping with enough to prove.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 11.3 /10 (raw 9.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Moulins 15/04/2023 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 2m1f87y Sft 14315/04C?C0 @ Les Sables 10/06/2023 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 2m1f32y Gd 145BHA60 @ Leopardstown 07/04/2024 · Pos 17th of 20 · OR 60 · 1m Hvy 132 · below its mark07/04/2024 · OR 60 par7/0460OR 60BHA57 @ Naas 29/04/2024 · Pos 14th of 19 · OR 57 · 1m Yie 135 · beat its mark29/04/2024 · OR 57 parBHA54 @ Navan 18/05/2024 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 54 · 1m5f Goo 131 · beat its mark18/05/2024 · OR 54 par18/0554OR 54BHA52 @ Fairyhouse 07/06/2024 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 52 · 1m4f Gd 129 · beat its mark07/06/2024 · OR 52 parBHA48 @ Naas 24/07/2024 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 48 · 1m Yie 125 · beat its mark24/07/2024 · OR 48 par24/0748OR 48BHA47 @ Dundalk 18/12/2024 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 47 · 7f Std 124 · beat its mark18/12/2024 · OR 47 parC8 @ Roscommon 04/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR - · 2m4f46y Yie 1594/08C8projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-04Roscommon?11th11th0
2024-12-18DundalkBHA4713th13th0
2024-07-24NaasBHA4810th10th0
2024-06-07FairyhouseBHA5210th10th0
2024-05-18NavanBHA5410th10th0
2024-04-29NaasBHA5714th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0429/0424/074/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength50%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/04/20237th33/10%45%+0.45
10/06/20236th14/126%50%+0.24
07/04/202417th100/10%16%+0.16
29/04/202414th125/10%28%+0.28
18/05/202410th50/10%31%+0.31
07/06/202410th28/10%40%+0.40
24/07/202410th22/10%31%+0.31
18/12/202413th66/10%8%+0.08
04/08/202611th150/10%33%+0.33