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5yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 72

Downpatrick · MB McGrady And Co Chartered Accountants Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2) · 2m 1f 165y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed up better than previously when mid-field in handicap at Kilbeggan (3m) in June. Hasn't built on that in 2 starts since, though, weakening when falling 2 out at Tramore (2½m) 5 weeks ago. Now switches to blinkers.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 9.3)

Highest class: BHA72
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Killarney 17/07/2025 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 2m4f85y Yie 15317/07C8C8 @ Kilbeggan 25/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR - · 2m2f200y Goo 154C8 @ Roscommon 05/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 15 · OR - · 1m7f110y Goo 1555/08C8C8 @ Sligo 20/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 2m4f107y Gd 154BHA77 @ Navan 20/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 16 · OR 77 · 2m3f Yie 144 · below its mark20/09/2025 · OR 77 par20/0977OR 77BHA74 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 19 · OR 74 · 3m Goo 142 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 74 parBHA72 @ Kilbeggan 15/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 72 · 3m100y Gd 141 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 72 par15/0672OR 72BHA72 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 15 · OR 72 · 2m4f85y Goo 140 · below its mark16/07/2026 · OR 72 par16/0772OR 72projClass-projected finish: 6th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13TramoreBHA720
2026-07-16KillarneyBHA727th7th0
2026-06-15KilbegganBHA727th7th0
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA748th8th0
2025-09-20NavanBHA7711th11th0
2025-08-20Sligo?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0720/0815/0616/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -2.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/07/202511th33/10%29%+0.29
25/07/202512th300/10%27%+0.27
05/08/202512th200/10%21%+0.21
20/08/20256th125/10%17%+0.17
20/09/202511th40/10%33%+0.33
12/04/20268th33/10%61%+0.61
15/06/20267th11/142%54%+0.12
16/07/20267th13/266%57%-0.09