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Gangster Granny

5yo Mare · 11-7 · OR 113

Downpatrick · Kildress Plumbing Suppliers Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 5f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thriving mare who notched her third course win from 5 starts when completing a double in a mares handicap here (2¾m) last month. Ran no sort of race back on the Flat last time and this demands more from her, but it would be folly to write her off given her effectiveness at the track.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength47%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C8.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA96 @ Punchestown 18/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 96 · 2m4f23y Sft 165 · below its mark18/02/2026 · OR 96 par18/0296OR 96BHA92 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 92 · 2m5f185y Yie 148 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 92 parBHA93 @ Bellewstown 18/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR 93 · 3m5y Yie 156 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 93 par18/0493OR 93BHA92 @ Downpatrick 08/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 92 · 2m5f180y Goo 160 · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 92 parBHA97 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR 97 · 2m5f180y Goo 166 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 97 par22/0597OR 97BHA96 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 96 · 2m5f180y Gd 168 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 96 parC8 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 98 · 2m5f185y Gd 153 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 98 par14/07C8OR 98BHA106 @ Downpatrick 09/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 106 · 2m5f180y Gd 154 · beat its mark09/08/2026 · OR 106 parBHA68 @ Down Royal 04/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 68 · 2m2f141y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 68 par4/0968OR 68projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Down RoyalBHA6812th11th+1
2026-08-09DownpatrickBHA1061st5th−3
2026-07-14Downpatrick?1st1st0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA962nd5th−2
2026-05-22DownpatrickBHA975th8th−2
2026-05-08DownpatrickBHA921st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/028/0514/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength54%

Delivery trend -8.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/02/202610th100/10%40%+0.40
29/03/20263rd50/10%78%+0.78
18/04/202611th25/10%29%+0.29
08/05/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
22/05/20265th11/142%71%+0.29
13/06/20262nd17/255%92%+0.36
14/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
09/08/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
04/09/202612th10/147%8%-0.39