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4

Holy Joe

6yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 114

Downpatrick · Kildress Plumbing Suppliers Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved to get off the mark at the third attempt in 15-runner maiden hurdle at Clonmel in June. Made the most of what became a good opportunity when following up in novice at Perth next time but had winning run ended in better-quality race last month. Needs to step up in first-time hood.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Perth 22/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 2m4f35y GS 160 · HIGHER CLASS22/044C8 @ Clonmel 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 2m113y Goo 1585/06C84 @ Perth 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 115 · 2m4f35y Gd 161 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 115 par12/074OR 115C8 @ Tramore 13/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 119 · 2m4f100y Gd 163 · below its mark13/08/2026 · OR 119 par13/08C8OR 119projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Tramore?5th5th0
2026-07-12Perth41st-3th+4
2026-06-05Clonmel?1st2nd−1
2026-05-22Downpatrick?−1
2026-04-22Perth46th2nd+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/045/0612/0713/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength34%

Delivery trend -15.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/04/20266th20/10%29%+0.29
05/06/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
12/07/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
13/08/20265th14/126%33%+0.07