7
Kashchei
6yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 112
Downpatrick · Kildress Plumbing Suppliers Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Downpatrick | BHA110 | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-06 | Kelso | 4 | 1st | -3th | +4 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-04 | Punchestown | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Navan | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 77% | +0.19 |
| 31/07/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 09/08/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 38% | -0.49 |
| 03/01/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 17/01/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 06/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |