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5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 114

Downpatrick · Kildress Plumbing Suppliers Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 5f 110y

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Strong at finish when making a winning debut in 16-runner novice hurdle at Kilbeggan (2¼m, good) in May. Showed better form but firmly put in his place when 16 lengths fourth of 6 to Midnight Jet in novice hurdle at Galway last time. Improvement needed.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 2m2f75y Goo 15815/05C8C8 @ Galway 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 2m4f156y Gd 15830/07C8projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Galway?4th4th0
2026-05-15Kilbeggan?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0530/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%

Delivery trend +18.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/05/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
30/07/20264th28/10%40%+0.40