2
Luker's Tipple
5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 120
Downpatrick · Kildress Plumbing Suppliers Rated Novice Hurdle · 2m 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Killarney | BHA77 | 10th | 10th | −0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Tramore | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sligo | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Downpatrick | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Roscommon | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 11% | -0.36 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 11/04/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | +0.00 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 79% | -0.00 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/08/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |