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8

Fizzle Rock

9yo Mare · 11-5

Downpatrick · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 165y

#5

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair winning hurdler who has gone with no encouragement in 2 starts over fences either side of a near 3-year absence.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Killarney 16/07/2021 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 2m1f Gd 16116/07C?4 @ Perth 28/07/2021 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m47y Goo 150C8 @ Tipperary 04/05/2023 · Pos 11th of 19 · OR - · 1m7f170y Goo 1614/05C8C8 @ Bellewstown 08/07/2023 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 2m4f Goo 161C8 @ Sligo 10/08/2023 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 2m4f80y Yie 15910/08C8BHA107 @ Listowel 17/09/2023 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 107 · 2m4f Goo 166 · below its mark17/09/2023 · OR 107 par4 @ Carlisle 19/10/2023 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 109 · 2m1f33y Hvy 154 · below its mark19/10/2023 · OR 109 par19/104OR 1091 @ Down Royal 10/11/2023 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 109 · 2m190y Sft 144 · beat its mark10/11/2023 · OR 109 par1 @ Punchestown 26/11/2023 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR - · 2m43y Sft 15126/111projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Kilbeggan?0
2023-11-26Punchestown14th4th0
2023-11-10Down Royal14th4th0
2023-10-19Carlisle43rd3rd0
2023-09-17ListowelBHA1073rd3rd0
2023-08-10Sligo?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/078/0719/1026/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 4-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength30%

Delivery trend +0.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20213rd11/142%78%+0.36
28/07/20214th2/189%57%-0.32
04/05/202311th66/10%44%+0.44
08/07/20234th33/10%63%+0.63
10/08/20231st11/142%100%+0.58
17/09/20233rd14/126%80%+0.54
19/10/20233rd7/282%80%-0.02
10/11/20234th66/10%50%+0.50
26/11/20234th150/10%0%0.00