IvyArcIvyArc
2

Kalsman

8yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 100

Downpatrick · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 165y

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Made all over hurdles at Down Royal in April. Matched that form at second attempt over fences when 2¼ lengths second of 15 to Driveonwill in handicap at this course last time. That was the seventh time he's made the frame from 9 outings at this track so must be respected.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: BHA47
Recent avg: C9.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA88 @ Downpatrick 15/06/2024 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR 88 · 2m5f180y Goo 168 · beat its mark15/06/2024 · OR 88 par15/0688OR 88BHA96 @ Downpatrick 30/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 96 · 2m5f185y Goo 168 · below its mark30/03/2025 · OR 96 parBHA94 @ Downpatrick 29/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 94 · 2m5f185y Yie 163 · below its mark29/03/2026 · OR 94 par29/0394OR 94BHA93 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 93 · 2m3f170y Goo 155 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 93 parBHA99 @ Downpatrick 08/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 15 · OR 99 · 2m5f180y Goo 167 · below its mark08/05/2026 · OR 99 par8/0599OR 99BHA100 @ Kilbeggan 31/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 100 · 2m3f20y Goo 168 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 100 parBHA99 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 99 · 2m7f150y Gd 166 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 99 par13/0699OR 99BHA99 @ Downpatrick 09/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 99 · 2m1f165y Gd 168 · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 99 parBHA97 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 97 · 2m3f100y Gd 165 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 97 par31/0897OR 97projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA972nd2nd0
2026-08-09DownpatrickBHA993rd3rd0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA993rd3rd0
2026-05-31KilbegganBHA10012th12th0
2026-05-08DownpatrickBHA999th9th0
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA931st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0612/0413/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -4.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/06/20241st16/116%100%+0.84
30/03/20254th20/10%77%+0.77
29/03/20266th22/10%62%+0.62
12/04/20261st17/255%100%+0.45
08/05/20269th4/179%43%-0.36
31/05/202612th18/15%15%+0.10
13/06/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
09/08/20263rd18/15%75%+0.70
31/08/20262nd12/137%93%+0.56