4
Pralognan
7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 98
Downpatrick · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 165y
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Downpatrick | BHA98 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Thurles | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-26 | Dundalk | BHA73 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Cork | BHA97 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Curragh | BHA65 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Haydock | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength75%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 01/08/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 04/09/2025 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 38% | -0.47 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 02/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 27/11/2025 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 09/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |