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5

Quirt Evans

11yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 95

Downpatrick · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 165y

#6

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★ Timeform

Commentary

One-time useful hurdler who didn't take to chasing the first time around and was badly out of sorts when last seen over hurdles over 2 years ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C11.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA132 @ Navan 17/09/2022 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 132 · 2m5f150y Goo 164 · below its mark17/09/2022 · OR 132 par17/09132OR 132BHA130 @ Gowran Park 30/09/2022 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 130 · 2m4f Yie 166 · below its mark30/09/2022 · OR 130 parBHA127 @ Punchestown 12/10/2022 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 127 · 2m4f80y Goo 163 · below its mark12/10/2022 · OR 127 par12/10127OR 127BHA123 @ Clonmel 11/05/2023 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 123 · 2m54y Sft 168 · below its mark11/05/2023 · OR 123 parBHA123 @ Killarney 15/05/2023 · Pos 13th of 16 · OR 123 · 2m4f Goo 159 · below its mark15/05/2023 · OR 123 par15/05123OR 123BHA121 @ Tipperary 06/07/2023 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 121 · 2m4f Goo 166 · below its mark06/07/2023 · OR 121 parBHA118 @ Galway 29/10/2023 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 118 · 2m11y Hvy 160 · below its mark29/10/2023 · OR 118 par29/10118OR 118BHA116 @ Cork 05/11/2023 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 116 · 2m Sft 168 · below its mark05/11/2023 · OR 116 parBHA114 @ Punchestown 16/11/2023 · Pos 12th of 16 · OR 114 · 2m107y Sft 168 · below its mark16/11/2023 · OR 114 par16/11114OR 114projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2023-11-16PunchestownBHA11412th12th0
2023-11-05CorkBHA1169th9th0
2023-10-29GalwayBHA11814th14th0
2023-07-06TipperaryBHA12110th10th0
2023-05-15KillarneyBHA12313th13th0
2023-05-11ClonmelBHA1238th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0911/0529/1016/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength26%

Delivery trend +0.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20224th33/10%25%+0.25
30/09/202210th50/10%18%+0.18
12/10/202215th100/10%0%0.00
11/05/20238th100/10%46%+0.46
15/05/202313th40/10%20%+0.20
06/07/202310th50/10%36%+0.36
29/10/202314th66/10%7%+0.07
05/11/20239th80/10%27%+0.27
16/11/202312th100/10%27%+0.27