10
Thirsty Work
5yo Mare · 11-5
Downpatrick · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 165y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.3 /10 (raw 10.7)
Highest class: BHA79
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Kilbeggan | BHA79 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Limerick | BHA82 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Limerick | BHA84 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-12-15 | Naas | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Navan | ? | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Navan | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2025 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 17/11/2025 | 15th | 200/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/12/2025 | 13th | 125/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/12/2025 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/04/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 28/05/2026 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 41% | -0.25 |
| 24/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 93% | +0.46 |