IvyArcIvyArc
11

Whispering Willow

5yo Mare · 11-5 · OR 97

Downpatrick · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase · 2m 1f 165y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

42%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Readily off the mark in big-field Punchestown hurdle on handicap hurdle/stable debut in May before a pair of promising efforts over fences. Bounced back from a couple of disappointing efforts when 3 lengths second of 14 to Mo Ghille Mar at Down Royal last time and bold bid expected now back chasing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Galway 08/09/2025 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR - · 2m160y Goo 1638/09C?C8 @ Listowel 27/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR - · 2m Goo 154C8 @ Fairyhouse 11/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 2m4f Yie 15111/10C8BHA86 @ Punchestown 13/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 19 · OR 86 · 2m Goo 154 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 86 parC0 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR - · 2m3f100y Goo 15922/05C?C0 @ Listowel 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 2m3f Yie 159BHA97 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 16 · OR 97 · 1m7f204y Gd 165 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 97 par6/0797OR 97BHA97 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR 97 · 2m2f200y Gd 165 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 97 parBHA96 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 96 · 2m1f87y Goo 152 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 96 par28/0896OR 96projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Down RoyalBHA962nd2nd0
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA9710th10th0
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA976th6th0
2026-06-01Listowel?3rd3rd0
2026-05-22Downpatrick?3rd3rd0
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA861st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0913/056/0728/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength85%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/09/202511th100/10%38%+0.38
27/09/20258th50/10%56%+0.56
11/10/20256th40/10%44%+0.44
13/05/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
22/05/20263rd4/179%85%+0.06
01/06/20263rd4/696%60%-0.36
06/07/20266th7/282%67%-0.15
24/07/202610th14/126%40%+0.14
28/08/20262nd14/126%92%+0.66