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15

Dearg Mor

5yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 88

Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y

#13

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved form over hurdles when making the frame in handicaps at around 3m on first 2 outings this season. Was strong in the betting but stumbled soon after the start when below-par fourth of 16 at Kilbeggan (19f) in July. Interesting to see if the support returns as he goes chasing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Gowran Park 08/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 2m20y Hvy 1618/11C8C8 @ Cork 07/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 19 · OR - · 2m200y Sft 1667/12C8C8 @ Limerick 26/12/2025 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR - · 2m Hvy 15326/12C8BHA93 @ Punchestown 26/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 93 · 2m3f Hvy 161 · below its mark26/01/2026 · OR 93 par26/0193OR 93BHA90 @ Wexford 27/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 90 · 3m Goo 158 · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 90 par27/0590OR 90BHA89 @ Kilbeggan 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 89 · 3m100y Gd 160 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 89 par15/0689OR 89BHA89 @ Kilbeggan 24/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 89 · 2m2f200y Gd 157 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 89 par24/0789OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-24KilbegganBHA894th4th0
2026-06-15KilbegganBHA894th4th0
2026-05-27WexfordBHA904th4th0
2026-01-26PunchestownBHA938th8th0
2025-12-26Limerick?13th13th0
2025-12-07Cork?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/1126/0124/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1818% of fieldRange 7-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength24%

Delivery trend -8.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 15th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/11/202510th200/10%40%+0.40
07/12/20255th200/10%78%+0.78
26/12/202513th200/10%25%+0.25
26/01/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
27/05/20264th20/10%77%+0.77
15/06/20264th7/282%79%-0.03
24/07/20264th5/287%80%-0.07