IvyArcIvyArc
9

Gorthill

10yo Gelding · 11-0 · OR 98

Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Front runner who took a step back in the right direction when second in handicap at Kilbeggan (3¼m) last month. However, failed to get his own way out in front and failed by a long way to repeat that effort at this course (19f) 18 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C10.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Downpatrick 19/05/2023 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 2m7f110y Goo 16819/05C84 @ Perth 11/06/2023 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 2m4f35y GS 155C0 @ Downpatrick 24/05/2024 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 3m4f165y Goo 16824/05C?C0 @ Downpatrick 23/05/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 3m4f165y Gd 168C0 @ Bellewstown 03/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 1m4f71y Goo 1543/07C?BHA112 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 112 · 2m3f100y Goo 168 · below its mark14/07/2025 · OR 112 parBHA110 @ Downpatrick 22/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 110 · 3m4f165y Goo 168 · below its mark22/05/2026 · OR 110 par22/05110OR 110BHA97 @ Kilbeggan 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 97 · 3m1f180y Goo 167 · below its mark21/08/2026 · OR 97 parBHA99 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 99 · 2m3f100y Gd 167 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 99 par31/0899OR 99projClass-projected finish: 16th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA9914th14th0
2026-08-21KilbegganBHA972nd2nd0
2026-08-02GalwayBHA1000
2026-05-22DownpatrickBHA1105th5th0
2025-07-14DownpatrickBHA1126th6th0
2025-07-03Bellewstown?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0523/0522/0531/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1871% of fieldRange 8-18 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength1%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20231st11/271%100%+0.29
11/06/20234th7/163%57%-0.06
24/05/20242nd11/142%88%+0.45
23/05/20252nd11/271%86%+0.15
03/07/20255th66/10%0%0.00
14/07/20256th4/179%17%-0.62
22/05/20265th11/142%43%+0.01
21/08/20262nd40/10%92%+0.92
31/08/202614th12/137%7%-0.30