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7yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 110

Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y

#16

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Only win came in handicap hurdle at this venue (2¾m) in April last year. Well held in 2 chase starts to begin the current season and below his best back hurdling since. However, he's worth a market check on handicap chase debut making first run since leaving Gordon Elliott.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA114 @ Killarney 12/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 114 · 2m4f50y Goo 151 · below its mark12/05/2025 · OR 114 par12/05114OR 114BHA115 @ Listowel 31/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 115 · 2m4f80y Goo 161 · below its mark31/05/2025 · OR 115 parBHA117 @ Punchestown 08/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 117 · 2m7f116y Goo 163 · below its mark08/06/2025 · OR 117 par8/06117OR 117BHA117 @ Bellewstown 05/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 117 · 3m116y Gd 163 · below its mark05/07/2025 · OR 117 parC0 @ Kilbeggan 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 2m4f80y Goo 16631/05C?C8 @ Wexford 30/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 2m3f110y Goo 1593 @ Cartmel 18/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR 121 · 2m6f31y Gd 159 · below its mark18/07/2026 · OR 121 par18/073OR 121C8 @ Sligo 06/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 115 · 2m1f193y Goo 146 · below its mark06/08/2026 · OR 115 parC8 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 112 · 2m4f110y Goo 146 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 112 par26/08C8OR 112projClass-projected finish: 11th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Bellewstown?4th4th0
2026-08-06Sligo?4th4th0
2026-07-18Cartmel311th11th0
2026-07-06Roscommon?0
2026-06-30Wexford?8th8th0
2026-05-31Kilbeggan?4th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/055/0718/0726/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1824% of fieldRange 5-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength49%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/05/20253rd11/271%78%+0.07
31/05/20253rd5/174%87%+0.13
08/06/20258th14/126%56%+0.30
05/07/20252nd10/147%93%+0.45
31/05/20264th22/10%67%+0.67
30/06/20268th28/10%22%+0.22
18/07/202611th40/10%17%+0.17
06/08/20264th7/163%57%-0.06
26/08/20264th11/271%75%+0.04