17
Jimli's Cave
8yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 81
Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y
#17
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#17
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 7.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Hexham | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA82 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Downpatrick | BHA84 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Downpatrick | BHA86 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Down Royal | BHA88 | 0 | ||
| 2025-10-10 | Downpatrick | BHA90 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 1812% of fieldRange 8-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 18.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 7th | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 14/07/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 71% | +0.19 |
| 05/08/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 10/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 10/10/2025 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |
| 29/03/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.03 |
| 21/06/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |