18
Malton Groove
9yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 80
Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Killarney | BHA82 | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-17 | Killarney | BHA83 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wexford | BHA84 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA83 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Limerick | BHA86 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Wexford | BHA89 | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1853% of fieldRange 4-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength38%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 18. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 20/09/2025 | 15th | 12/1 | 37% | 7% | -0.30 |
| 11/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |
| 04/11/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 03/12/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 21/05/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 82% | +0.06 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |