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7

Mickey Cohen

5yo Gelding · 11-8 · OR 106

Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form without winning over hurdles but made a successful chasing debut in maiden at this course (2¼m) a year ago. Has run creditably in 3 starts over hurdles since, fifth of 14 in handicap at Ballinrobe (2¾m) 7 days ago, and he merits consideration now handicapping over fences.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C10.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA104 @ Down Royal 13/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 104 · 2m3f170y Gd 153 · below its mark13/04/2025 · OR 104 par13/04104OR 104BHA103 @ Wexford 17/05/2025 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 103 · 3m Goo 142 · below its mark17/05/2025 · OR 103 parC8 @ Kilbeggan 11/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 102 · 2m2f160y Gd 154 · below its mark11/07/2025 · OR 102 par11/07C8OR 102BHA100 @ Downpatrick 10/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 100 · 2m5f180y Goo 166 · below its mark10/08/2025 · OR 100 parBHA98 @ Bellewstown 27/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 98 · 2m4f110y Gd 161 · below its mark27/08/2025 · OR 98 par27/0898OR 98C0 @ Downpatrick 19/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m1f165y Yie 156BHA100 @ Tipperary 06/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 100 · 2m7f60y Goo 155 · below its mark06/10/2025 · OR 100 par6/10100OR 100BHA100 @ Sligo 12/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 100 · 2m4f116y Gd 168 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 100 parBHA100 @ Ballinrobe 11/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 100 · 2m5f208y Goo 146 · below its mark11/09/2026 · OR 100 par11/09100OR 100projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11BallinrobeBHA1005th5th0
2026-07-12SligoBHA1004th4th0
2025-10-06TipperaryBHA1002nd2nd0
2025-09-19Downpatrick?1st1st0
2025-08-27BellewstownBHA983rd3rd0
2025-08-10DownpatrickBHA1004th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0410/086/1011/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1882% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/04/20253rd4/179%67%-0.12
17/05/20256th9/153%58%+0.06
11/07/20253rd9/153%71%+0.19
10/08/20254th5/174%73%-0.01
27/08/20253rd11/271%86%+0.15
19/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
06/10/20252nd11/486%83%-0.02
12/07/20264th17/255%77%+0.22
11/09/20265th9/153%69%+0.17