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4

Ringdufferin

8yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 109

Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual hurdles winner for Gordon Elliott in 2023 but remains a maiden over fences. Best effort for present stable when runner-up in handicap chase at this course (19f) in June, so he could bounce back from a lesser effort over hurdles last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C11.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Kilbeggan 17/06/2024 · Pos 11th of 14 · OR - · 2m4f51y Goo 16617/06C?BHA116 @ Punchestown 12/01/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 116 · 2m6f148y Sft 162 · below its mark12/01/2025 · OR 116 parBHA113 @ Fairyhouse 05/02/2025 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 113 · 2m5f55y Sft 169 · below its mark05/02/2025 · OR 113 par5/02113OR 113BHA118 @ Punchestown 08/06/2025 · Pos 14th of 17 · OR 118 · 2m7f116y Goo 164 · below its mark08/06/2025 · OR 118 parBHA108 @ Tramore 19/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 108 · 2m5f140y Yie 156 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 108 par19/04108OR 108BHA112 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 112 · 3m50y Gd 154 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 112 parBHA108 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 108 · 2m3f100y Gd 164 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 108 par13/06108OR 108BHA109 @ Downpatrick 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 109 · 2m5f185y Gd 165 · below its mark14/07/2026 · OR 109 parBHA109 @ Sligo 19/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 109 · 3m1f168y Goo 166 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 109 par19/08109OR 109projClass-projected finish: 14th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19SligoBHA10910th10th0
2026-07-14DownpatrickBHA1096th6th0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA1082nd2nd0
2026-05-15KilbegganBHA1128th8th0
2026-04-19TramoreBHA1084th4th0
2025-06-08PunchestownBHA11814th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/068/0613/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1865% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength58%

Delivery trend +0.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 18.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/06/202411th50/10%23%+0.23
12/01/20256th25/10%29%+0.29
05/02/202511th28/10%9%+0.09
08/06/202514th66/10%19%+0.19
19/04/20264th9/276%73%-0.04
15/05/20268th20/10%0%0.00
13/06/20262nd25/10%92%+0.92
14/07/20266th12/137%58%+0.21
19/08/202610th16/116%10%-0.06