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14

Schiehallion

9yo Gelding · 10-5 · OR 89

Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y

#14

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#14

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden hurdler who didn't offer much in 2 starts over fences this summer, fifth of 6 in maiden over this C&D on the first occasion. Fared no better back hurdling when down the field in handicap at Down Royal 3 weeks ago. Now tried in a visor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA95 @ Down Royal 01/11/2024 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 95 · 3m30y Goo 161 · below its mark01/11/2024 · OR 95 par1/1195OR 95BHA98 @ Punchestown 10/12/2024 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR 98 · 2m7f182y Goo 164 · below its mark10/12/2024 · OR 98 parBHA97 @ Wexford 24/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 97 · 3m Gd 166 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 97 par24/0797OR 97BHA97 @ Down Royal 29/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 97 · 3m GF 165 · below its mark29/08/2025 · OR 97 parBHA98 @ Downpatrick 10/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 98 · 2m5f180y Yie 166 · below its mark10/10/2025 · OR 98 par10/1098OR 98BHA97 @ Down Royal 31/10/2025 · Pos 18th of 20 · OR 97 · 3m30y Goo 165 · below its mark31/10/2025 · OR 97 parBHA93 @ Bellewstown 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR 93 · 3m5y Yie 156 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 93 par18/0493OR 93BHA93 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 93 · 2m7f150y Gd 166 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 93 parBHA92 @ Down Royal 28/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 15 · OR 92 · 3m Goo 160 · below its mark28/08/2026 · OR 92 par28/0892OR 92projClass-projected finish: 13th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-28Down RoyalBHA9210th10th0
2026-07-17KillarneyBHA920
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA935th5th0
2026-05-13PunchestownBHA950
2026-04-18BellewstownBHA932nd2nd0
2026-01-01FairyhouseBHA960

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/1129/0818/0428/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish18th of 180% of fieldRange 11-18 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 18th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/11/20242nd16/116%92%+0.76
10/12/20248th14/126%56%+0.30
24/07/20255th16/116%69%+0.53
29/08/20252nd17/255%90%+0.35
10/10/20254th11/271%70%-0.01
31/10/202518th15/261%11%-0.50
18/04/20262nd14/126%93%+0.67
13/06/20265th10/147%20%-0.27
28/08/202610th20/10%36%+0.36