10
Shantou Show
10yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 95
Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C8.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Wexford | BHA98 | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-28 | Cartmel | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Downpatrick | BHA99 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fairyhouse | BHA101 | 0 | ||
| 2026-01-20 | Down Royal | BHA103 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1841% of fieldRange 6-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 18. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2024 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 08/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/10/2025 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 55% | +0.02 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 27/11/2025 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 20/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 45% | -0.31 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |