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8

Tell Nobody Nothin

6yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 102

Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y

#6

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a first chase success in handicap at Kilbeggan (2½m) in April. However, was pulled up at Wexford (25f) next time, before probably needing the outing after 4 months off in handicap hurdle here (2¾m) 18 days ago. This run should reveal more.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA102 @ Downpatrick 19/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 102 · 2m7f110y Yie 158 · below its mark19/09/2025 · OR 102 par19/09102OR 102BHA102 @ Galway 26/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 102 · 2m6f111y Yie 158 · below its mark26/10/2025 · OR 102 parC8 @ Naas 09/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 100 · 2m4f40y Sft 149 · below its mark09/11/2025 · OR 100 par9/11C8OR 100BHA100 @ Thurles 20/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 100 · 2m2f65y Yie 159 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 100 parBHA99 @ Down Royal 26/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 99 · 2m4f130y Goo 167 · below its mark26/12/2025 · OR 99 par26/1299OR 99BHA99 @ Down Royal 20/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 99 · 2m4f145y Yie 167 · below its mark20/01/2026 · OR 99 parBHA97 @ Down Royal 12/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 15 · OR 97 · 3m2f50y Goo 165 · below its mark12/04/2026 · OR 97 par12/0497OR 97BHA96 @ Kilbeggan 24/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 96 · 2m3f210y Goo 153 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 96 parBHA102 @ Downpatrick 31/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 102 · 2m5f180y Gd 158 · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 102 par31/08102OR 102projClass-projected finish: 9th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31DownpatrickBHA1028th8th0
2026-05-16WexfordBHA1020
2026-04-24KilbegganBHA961st1st0
2026-04-12Down RoyalBHA976th6th0
2026-01-20Down RoyalBHA994th4th0
2025-12-26Down RoyalBHA993rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0920/1112/0431/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1847% of fieldRange 18-18 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 18. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/09/20253rd13/266%80%+0.14
26/10/20254th7/163%79%+0.15
09/11/20252nd5/174%88%+0.14
20/11/20256th7/163%64%+0.01
26/12/20253rd10/382%86%+0.03
20/01/20264th9/276%70%-0.06
12/04/20266th7/282%64%-0.17
24/04/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
31/08/20268th13/266%22%-0.44