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12

Western Model

7yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 93

Downpatrick · Vianstown Handicap Chase · 2m 7f 110y

#2

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed promise of previous run when landing a Roscommon handicap hurdle in July. Found less than looked likely returned to chasing when fourth of 12 at Killarney last time, but he's on a handy mark over fences (now rated 9 lb higher over hurdles).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C9.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA93 @ Punchestown 07/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 18 · OR 93 · 3m157y Goo 149 · below its mark07/06/2025 · OR 93 par7/0693OR 93BHA94 @ Roscommon 05/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 16 · OR 94 · 3m1f10y Yie 163 · below its mark05/08/2025 · OR 94 parBHA94 @ Fairyhouse 11/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 94 · 3m104y Yie 140 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 94 par11/1094OR 94BHA95 @ Punchestown 13/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 95 · 3m70y Hvy 164 · below its mark13/11/2025 · OR 95 parBHA98 @ Limerick 28/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 98 · 2m6f Sft 166 · below its mark28/05/2026 · OR 98 par28/0598OR 98BHA96 @ Downpatrick 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 96 · 2m5f180y Gd 171 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 96 parC0 @ Curragh 26/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 1m4f Goo 16826/06C?BHA97 @ Roscommon 06/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR 97 · 2m7f180y Gd 165 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 97 parBHA94 @ Killarney 20/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 94 · 2m7f100y Goo 162 · below its mark20/08/2026 · OR 94 par20/0894OR 94projClass-projected finish: 4th of 18
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20KillarneyBHA944th4th0
2026-07-06RoscommonBHA971st1st0
2026-06-26Curragh?7th7th0
2026-06-13DownpatrickBHA963rd3rd0
2026-05-28LimerickBHA988th8th0
2025-11-13PunchestownBHA955th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today7/0613/1126/0620/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1888% of fieldRange 1-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength59%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 18. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
07/06/20252nd11/486%94%+0.09
05/08/20255th16/583%73%-0.10
11/10/20252nd9/276%91%+0.15
13/11/20255th11/271%69%-0.02
28/05/20268th12/137%42%+0.05
13/06/20263rd20/10%85%+0.85
26/06/20267th22/10%50%+0.50
06/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
20/08/20264th3/184%73%-0.11