11

Myluckymaker

5yo Mare · 11-7

Downpatrick · Dunleath Flat Race · 2m 1f 165y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

31%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is proving consistent rather than progressive, runner-up for a third consecutive start in 7-runner bumper at Kilbeggan (19f, good to soft) 15 days ago, going with enthusiasm. Sets the standard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Fairyhouse 13/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 17 · OR - · 2m Sft 15913/12C?C0 @ Down Royal 17/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR - · 2m1f105y Goo 16517/03C?C0 @ Clonmel 14/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 2m3f185y Yie 16514/04C?C0 @ Tramore 16/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 2m140y Goo 16516/08C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 2m3f Goo 1613/09C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Kilbeggan?2nd2nd0
2026-08-16Tramore?2nd2nd0
2026-04-14Clonmel?2nd2nd0
2026-03-17Down Royal?6th6th0
2025-12-13Fairyhouse?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1217/0314/0416/083/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength71%

Delivery trend -14.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20258th80/10%56%+0.56
17/03/20266th11/142%58%+0.16
14/04/20262nd16/116%86%+0.70
16/08/20262nd2/189%91%+0.01
03/09/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06