IvyArcIvyArc
4

S T Hamo

5yo Gelding · 12-0

Downpatrick · Dunleath Flat Race · 2m 1f 165y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

10%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Backed up previous effort when third of 17 in bumper at Cork (2¼m, good to soft) 46 days ago. More needed, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Naas 15/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR - · 2m Hvy 16415/12C?C0 @ Kilbeggan 15/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 2m2f120y Gd 16815/05C?C0 @ Killarney 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR - · 2m1f Goo 16816/07C?C0 @ Cork 03/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 17 · OR - · 2m2f Goo 1683/08C?projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-03Cork?3rd3rd0
2026-07-16Killarney?4th4th0
2026-05-15Kilbeggan?6th6th0
2025-12-15Naas?14th14th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/1215/0516/073/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +25.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/12/202514th100/10%7%+0.07
15/05/20266th80/10%50%+0.50
16/07/20264th16/116%79%+0.63
03/08/20263rd33/10%88%+0.88