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Force Noir

2yo Colt · 9-10 · OR 86

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Confirmed debut promise in spades when clear-cut winner of 5f maiden at Naas in April. Fitted with first-time blinkers (left off here) when down the field in Norfolk Stakes on sole run for Kevin Philippart De Foy but it's too soon to be writing him off given previous promise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 6.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f Hvy 13315/03C8C8 @ Naas 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f Gd 13227/04C81 @ Royal Ascot 20/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 21 · OR - · 5f GF 12920/061projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-20Royal Ascot117th17th0
2026-04-27Naas?1st1st0
2026-03-15Curragh?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/0327/0420/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%

Delivery trend -15.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/20262nd5/696%83%-0.12
27/04/20261st4/998%100%+0.02
20/06/202617th7/163%20%-0.43