3
Supreme Lord
2yo Colt · 9-10 · OR 89
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Race · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Navan | BHA91 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA79 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Curragh | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-23 | Leopardstown | 1 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Fairyhouse | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 23/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |