Arrowstock
2yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 82
Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
61%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Curragh | 1 | 5th | -4th | +7 |
| 2026-08-14 | Cork | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Navan | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Naas | 1 | 5th | -4th | +7 |
| 2026-06-07 | Navan | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 81% | -0.03 |
| 14/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 16/08/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |