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5

Tio Joao

2yo Colt · 9-6

Dundalk · Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden · 6f

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Yard has enjoyed success with this family and he showed ability faced with a stiff task on debut despite finishing last of 6 in a Leopardstown Group 3 (7f) in July. This promises to reveal a good deal more with sights lowered considerably.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼7
Strength35%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today:
Class gap: +7.4
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Leopardstown 23/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 7f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS23/071
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-23Leopardstown16th-3th+7

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 4-9 · 50%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength16%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/07/20266th33/10%0%0.00