15
Free Solo
9yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 61
Dundalk · Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Leopardstown | BHA63 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | BHA64 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Leopardstown | BHA66 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Leopardstown | BHA66 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Roscommon | BHA70 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-05-04 | Curragh | BHA72 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 17100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 27/02/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/04/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 18/05/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 18/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 03/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 20/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |