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14

Kc Bear

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 62

Dundalk · Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap · 7f

#9

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressed again when getting off the mark in 6f handicap here in December. Good in-frame efforts on first 3 outings this year but unable to continue the good work the last twice. Too free fitted with cheekpieces over 1m latest so return to 7f could be a plus.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: BHA59
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f Yie 13110/09C8C8 @ Dundalk 12/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f Std 132BHA59 @ Dundalk 28/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 59 · 6f Std 138 · beat its mark28/11/2025 · OR 59 par28/1159OR 59BHA60 @ Dundalk 10/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 60 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 60 parBHA65 @ Dundalk 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 65 · 1m Std 133 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 65 par13/0365OR 65BHA65 @ Fairyhouse 28/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f Gd 133 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 65 parBHA64 @ Fairyhouse 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 64 · 1m160y Goo 134 · beat its mark01/07/2026 · OR 64 par1/0764OR 64BHA65 @ Dundalk 12/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 65 · 7f Std 135 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 65 parBHA65 @ Navan 27/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 65 · 1m20y Goo 129 · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 65 par27/0865OR 65projClass-projected finish: 6th of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27NavanBHA657th7th0
2026-07-12DundalkBHA658th8th0
2026-07-01FairyhouseBHA642nd2nd0
2026-05-28FairyhouseBHA654th4th0
2026-03-13DundalkBHA652nd2nd0
2025-12-10DundalkBHA601st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0910/121/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1744% of fieldRange 4-15 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength45%

Delivery trend -7.3% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 10th of 17. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/09/20258th33/10%22%+0.22
12/11/20258th28/10%46%+0.46
28/11/20253rd14/126%85%+0.58
10/12/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
13/03/20262nd1/195%86%-0.09
28/05/20264th12/137%75%+0.38
01/07/20262nd5/174%92%+0.19
12/07/20268th4/179%30%-0.49
27/08/20267th10/147%50%+0.03