Mehman
7yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 68
Dundalk · Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Cork | BHA71 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Roscommon | BHA75 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Galway | BHA76 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Leopardstown | BHA77 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Naas | BHA76 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bellewstown | BHA73 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |
| 06/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 92% | +0.50 |
| 20/03/2026 | 9th | 9/4 | 88% | 11% | -0.77 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 04/06/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 28/07/2026 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 18/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |