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10

Mickey The Steel

8yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 61

Dundalk · Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap · 7f

#12

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winless since 2024 but has been placed 5 times this season, including at Leopardstown (7f) in June. Backward step at Galway and this his first all-weather start since 2023.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength1%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class: BHA65
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA68 @ Curragh 02/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 68 · 5f Hvy 119 · beat its mark02/11/2025 · OR 68 par2/1168OR 68BHA67 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 67 · 6f Hvy 130 · beat its mark15/03/2026 · OR 67 parBHA67 @ Naas 22/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 67 · 5f205y Sft 137 · beat its mark22/03/2026 · OR 67 par22/0367OR 67BHA66 @ Curragh 28/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 23 · OR 66 · 7f Sft 136 · beat its mark28/03/2026 · OR 66 parBHA67 @ Curragh 19/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 17 · OR 67 · 7f Sft 127 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 67 par19/0467OR 67BHA65 @ Listowel 31/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 65 · 6f60y Goo 125 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 65 parBHA65 @ Navan 07/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 21 · OR 65 · 5f Goo 135 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 65 par7/0665OR 65BHA65 @ Leopardstown 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 65 · 7f45y Goo 135 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 65 parBHA65 @ Galway 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f Yie 135 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 65 par1/0865OR 65projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 17
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-01GalwayBHA656th6th0
2026-06-18LeopardstownBHA653rd3rd0
2026-06-07NavanBHA657th7th0
2026-05-31ListowelBHA653rd3rd0
2026-04-19CurraghBHA6713th13th0
2026-03-28CurraghBHA662nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/1128/037/061/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1756% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 17. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/11/20254th13/266%77%+0.11
15/03/20263rd6/168%82%+0.13
22/03/20263rd5/174%86%+0.12
28/03/20262nd15/261%95%+0.35
19/04/202613th10/147%25%-0.22
31/05/20263rd12/137%83%+0.46
07/06/20267th10/147%70%+0.23
18/06/20263rd20/10%86%+0.86
01/08/20266th10/147%58%+0.11