2
Smoke Them Out
4yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 69
Dundalk · Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap · 7f
#13
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: BHA67
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Navan | BHA74 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Naas | BHA76 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Bellewstown | BHA76 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Curragh | BHA76 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Cork | BHA77 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Curragh | BHA78 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 1713% of fieldRange 13-17 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 17. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 62% | -0.02 |
| 15/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 28/03/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 62% | -0.04 |
| 19/04/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 26/06/2026 | 15th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 02/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 03/08/2026 | 11th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 27/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |